Indicator update for August 2017

The past month has seen data released for Australian retail sales, motor vehicles, the terms of trade, consumer and producer prices, and last but most definitely not least the all-important private sector credit. Our indicators have all been updated and are predicting a 7% chance of a contraction in the next quarter, a 43% chance of of growth continuing on its current trajectory, and a 50% chance of an improvement.

We need to stress that the 'positiveness' displayed in the indicators this month is exactly what we would expect in an economy that is nearing the peak of an unsustainable, credit-fuelled expansion. We take a value free, impartial approach to scoring our indicators regardless of what we believe it means for six months, …

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About the author

Dr Justin Pyvis is the Founder and Chief Economist at Pixelics. Justin is a published academic who has previously worked at AECOM, a global consultancy on the Fortune 500 and more recently with Asianomics Group, an economic, corporate and technical analysis research company based in Hong Kong.