thumbnail

United States: Employment

An unemployment rate nearing long-term lows - provided the participation rate has not collapsed - can indicate that an expansion is nearing its end. This indicator presents th […]
thumbnail

United States: Investment

This indicator looks at how many resources are being allocated to the capital goods sector relative to total economic output. When this indicator moves strongly positive +2), […]
thumbnail

United States: Money supply

Excessive growth in a nation's money supply is a tell-tale sign of an economy that might be entering bubble territory. Conversely, deceleration in the growth in money supply m […]
thumbnail

United States: Private credit growth

This indicator presents deviations from the long run trend in credit growth in the United States. Credit is the lifeblood of the modern boom-bust economy, which requires a con […]
thumbnail

United States: Private credit to GDP

This indicator presents deviations from the long run trend in the ratio between private non-financial credit and gross domestic product (GDP) in the United States. Credit is t […]
thumbnail

United States: Profits

Profits are essential to a well functioning economy. In this series we look at the long term trend of nonfinancial company profits before tax. While the series can be quite va […]
thumbnail

United States: Real lending rate

The standard business cycle develops when central banks force the real lending rate negative, leading to a boost in profits in the capital goods sector. More workers are hired […]