Arnold Kling has a very interesting theory about the state of the United States economy.
"I think that back then [2008-09] there was a sudden political regime shift. The politicians had been telling mortgage lenders, “Don’t you dare turn anyone down for a mortgage.” Then, all of a sudden, as Erdmann put it, “After mid-2008, we effectively made it illegal for two-thirds of the country to get a mortgage.” That sharp change from one regime to another adversely affected many patterns of specialization and trade, some directly and some indirectly. When patterns became unsustainab
Sometimes it can be difficult getting a read on an asset class using
public data. National house price indexes have an
immense lag and auction clearance rates are highly volatile. So, we
created a new one!
This new indicator presents sentiment data we scraped from public Twitter
'tweets' related to Australian housing and property, beginning in 2013.
Essentially we took millions of rows of raw data, ran it through our
in-house sentiment analysis python script, and outputted it as a neat, tidy
monthly sentiment indicator.
You can view the up-to-date, interactive version he
The cryptocurrency boom of 2017 bust in spectacular fashion (as we predicted), with many coins down nearly 70% from their peak. But that doesn't mean cryptocurrencies should be cast aside and ignored. To the contrary, now that the mania has passed and prices are coming back down to Earth they deserve more attention than ever.
In our latest special report, 'Cryptocurrencies and the global recession', we reiterate why a global recession is likely to hit in the next 12 to 18 months, before highlighting the role cryptocurrencies have to play in the aftermath. In a world where debt-fuelle
We stumbled across some fluff at Bloomberg reporting on the recent appearance of the Nakamoto Family Foundation website, http://nakamotofamilyfoundatio...:
Is the unknown creator of Bitcoin writing a book about it?
That could be concluded from a cryptic message posted Friday at a website
possibly linked to Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonym used by the person
or people who released the original Bitcoin white paper in 2008.
The problem is - and Bloomberg's army of editors should have picked this up right away - is that the website was only registered
We recently created two new always up-to-date indicators, Global: GDP per capita and Global: Unemployment rate, and added a data release schedule.
You can view the indicators on their respective pages by browsing to the Global category. The data includes advanced nations, with developing nations to be added in the coming days.
The data release schedule is something we've been working on for a while. Not all of the kinks have been ironed out so initially it's just going to cover data release dates for Australia and Canada. But before long, you can expect to find all relevant re
Regular visitors will have noticed a significant change in the way our website looks and feels. After several weeks of development, we finally felt comfortable enough to release a complete redesign. Built almost entirely from the ground up, the new site marks an exciting new chapter here at Pixelics: "back to basics". As for the major change to our service:
Subscriptions have been removed entirely.
All registered users will now have full access to our indicators, with unregistered guests restricted to research notes. The only thing you'll see a price tag on are our special repo
We've been writing and tweeting about the collapse in interest-only property loan issuance in Australia for several months, following APRA's decision last year to require banks to keep interest-only loans to less than 30% of their mortgage portfolio.
Australia's remarkable property boom was fuelled with debt, and the big banks completely transformed their balance sheets to facilitate it. In the past 18 years, the amount of bank credit allocated to property has grown from 43% to 62%.
The financial services sector, as a share of total economic output, has profited immens
In a recent NBER working paper by Òscar Jordà, Moritz Schularick, Alan M. Taylor and Felix Ward, Global financial cycles and risk premiums, the authors conclude that:
"First, the comovement in total loans, house prices, and equity prices has reached historical highs over the past few decades... Second, the post-1980 increase in equity price comovement is particularly notable, because it has reached historically unprecedented levels and substantially exceeds the increase in the comovement in other real or financial variables. Third, the post-1980 synchronization of equi